Turkey, Egypt and the US - Is the Middle East About to Explode?

Aside from the obvious support both militarily and financially from Iran, the Hamas leadership in Gaza received more than a supportive nod from both Egypt and Turkey today.  In the wake of its barrage of rockets sent toward southern and central Israel and its declaration of "opening Hell's doors" upon Israel, Hamas was commended by Egyptian President Morsi and Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan and Israel declared anathema for its "aggression toward the citizens of Gaza."

Of course, this rhetoric is not unexpected.  To the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood, to which Morsi belongs, and to the Islamic Freedom and Justice party (AKP) of which Erdogan is the leader, Israel is the "little satan" who poisons the region with "zionist presence."  Vitriol has been part of their agenda and, in fact, helped get the two leaders into power.  After all, in the "democratic" Middle East, it is not the multiple party system that provides a platform for ideas, it is the "us against the Zionist" manifesto that unites the populace firmly behind a politician.

For Israel, it is not the support that Hamas receives from Arab and Islamic nations in the Middle East that is concerning.  It is quite a natural expectation as Israel develops policy toward their neighbors and in developing plans for their own security.

What is concerning, and in fact quite daunting, is the seeming duplicity of the US administration with regard to the region.  Yesterday November 15th, as Israel prepared to bury a pregnant mother, a rabbinical student  and a child whose lives were prematurely ended by a Hamas rocket that landed on their apartment building, White House press secretary Jay Carney released a statement:

"There is no justification for the violence that Hamas and other terrorist organizations are employing against the people of Israel," Carney said. "We call on those responsible to stop these cowardly acts immediately in order to allow the situation to de-escalate....Hamas claims to have the best interests of the Palestinian people at heart, yet it continues to engage in violence that is counterproductive to the Palestinian cause," Carney said. "Attacking Israel on a near-daily basis does nothing to help the Palestinians in Gaza or to move the Palestinian people any closer to achieving self-determination."

This was an unequivocal message of solidarity that struck some hope in Israelis' hearts that the administration had stepped away from its prior ambiguity towards the long-standing conflict.  Of course, that hope may be short-lived after official White House reports today of the conversation President Obama had with Prime Minister Erdogan.  The two leaders, according to a White House read-out of the call, seemed to agree on much: 

"Today, the President called Prime Minister Erdogan to discuss the escalating violence in Israel and the Gaza Strip," the White House read-out of the call states.  "The two leaders shared their concerns about the dangers to civilian populations on both sides and expressed their common desire to see an end to the violence.  The President and Prime Minister agreed that the continued spiral of violence jeopardizes prospects for a durable, lasting peace in the region.  The President underscored his commitment to advancing the goal of Middle East peace. The President’s call to Prime Minister Erdogan follows his outreach to counterparts in Israel and Egypt on November 14."

According to Daniel Harper of The Weekly Standard, "Indeed, the White House in no way indicates the leaders disagreed about anything in their call.  Interestingly, Erdoğan earlier called the Israeli strikes 'a pre-election stunt,' according to Ynet.  Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan decried Israel's airstrikes on Gaza on Friday as a pre-election stunt and said he would discuss the crisis with Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi in Cairo this weekend, reports Ynet.  Ynet says that Erdoğan told reporters, "Before this election they (Israel) shot these innocent people in Gaza for reasons they fabricated....The dominant world powers are now making the Gaza people and fighters pay, and as the Republic of Turkey we are with our brothers in Gaza and their just cause."

With respect to President Morsi of Egypt, the White House official report states that on November 14, "In [his conversation with Morsi], the president reiterated the United States' support for Israel's right to self-defense," according to Carney.

Today, President Morsi sent a delegation to Gaza declaring categorical support for their Hamas brothers in Gaza.  Morsi on Thursday condemned Israel's "ongoing military offensive against Gaza" ordering his prime minister and top security officials to visit the Gaza Strip on Friday to show support for Palestinian residents in the face of what he called an "unacceptable" bombing campaign by Israel.  Leading politicians and activists, including members of Morsi's own Muslim Brotherhood, called on the president to sever ties with the Jewish state and open Egypt's Rafah border crossing with Gaza."The situation has changed in Egypt. And all is not going to be normal on the eastern front," said Walid Kazziha, a political science professor at the American University in Cairo.

Although Egypt is unlikely to attack Israel, it can cease cooperation with the Jewish state on security along their shared border, according to analysts and politicians, including members of the Salafist Nour party.  Egypt "can make real nuisance out of Gaza for the Israelis, without getting implicated — in the same way the Syrians made southern Lebanon a big nuisance without getting directly involved," Kazziha said. "You arm people, you open the borders, you offer support."

What impact President Obama has on the current Middle East crisis will clearly depend upon not only public communication through White House staffers, but private communication between him and the leadership of key Middle Eastern states.  The policy reprieve and seeming support of the US for a full-scale ground strike upon Gaza by Israel will be tested.  With these tests, whether or not real policy changes have taken place regarding Israel's right to defend herself at all costs will come to the front.  As for most Israelis including their leadership, and for very good reason, prudence and circumspection always take precedence with this US administration.

As for the rest of us, although we focus on the battle in and around Gaza and Israel, we must keep our eyes on other nations of interest and their proxies - and especially Egypt and Turkey, who are vying for regional strength within the Islamic world.  If the conflict between Hamas and Israel drags on and if civilian casualties begin to mount, regional unrest will undoubtedly occur.  Will the US leadership have the stomach to stand firm in their support, or will they revert to previous policy and rhetoric to attempt to further their standing within the Islamic entities in the region?

Time will tell...