In the several months since the onset of the "Arab Spring" we have watched as presidents and prime-ministers lauded this so-called revolution as a fait accompli of democratic metamorphosis. Leaders like President Obama waited and watched just long enough to place an additional hand to the back of despots who were being pushed into the abyss of "change" and then springing onto the bandwagon of the new regimes as if these regimes were the 2nd Continental Congress of 1776 ratifying the Articles of Confederation. Jumping into the fray with "rockets red glare, bombs bursting in air," Mr. Obama even trumpeted a non-war against the Libyan dictator to prove his support for "change" to the world and align himself staunchly with the Arab "springers."
But, what have we seen in the weeks since all the soliloquy and gleeful rhetoric began? What direction has this metamorphosis taken? In Egypt, we have witnessed the expulsion of an autocrat only to be replaced by a military junta just as despotic and which has aligned itself with the radical Muslim Brotherhood for political expediency. These passionate "lovers of democracy" have brokered an agreement between the PLO and the Hamas, and shown support for the Hamas, a terrorist organization with absolutely no democratic foundation and clearly no vision for one. They have allowed Christian Copts to be murdered by the dozens, opened the Egyptian border with Gaza and allowed a massive Al Qaeda presence to arise in the Sinai. They have acquiesced to Iran, allowing its war ships to traverse the Suez Canal for the first time in decades, have threatened to end the 32-year old Egypt-Israeli peace agreement and have scheduled a farcical shut-down of natural gas sales to Israel. This is the same "democracy" that our current administration has pledged 1 billion US taxpayer dollars to support! And that is just Egypt! Time does not allow us to develop the remaining Kafkaesque scenarios in Tunisia, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain, Syria and the like...but, so far the "Arab Spring" is transitioning into summer with no signs of democracy on the horizon.
"Give it time - don't be so negative," says the ever-engaging idealist. After all, no democracy was born in a day. Well, my friends, the chances that true liberty and any semblance of democracy will ever be birthed in this region of the world are slim and none...and the proverbial slim left the region long ago. When the "masses" in the Arab world finally realize that there is no difference between what is and what was, the real revolution will begin. We have all heard the saying that "nature abhors a vacuum." Well, in this region of the world, "human nature" abhors a vacuum...and the vacuum that this "Arab Spring" will become will soon be filled - one can be sure of that.
Although I pray earnestly that I am wrong, I truly believe the end-product of this evacuation will be worse than anyone could ever imagine. There is no doubt in my mind that radical Islam will jump on this movement's back and its leaders will take the reigns. The precedence has been set and the path is paved. The road will lead to chaos and radical Islam will be the congealing force that "calms" the masses into a frenzy of unified hatred and which will spread through the region like hegemonic butter over hot toast. Once this occurs, what will follow will be a true "revolution" the likes of which we have never seen.
As much as President Obama and his ilk have submitted to the illusive concept of democratic change, the Arab world has rejected him even harder. As often as he has attempted to castigate and marginalize Israel, the only real democracy in the Middle East, in favor of a hand that reaches out to Islam, that hand has been slapped away dismissively time and time again. What Obama HAS accomplished with his new Middle East policy is to empower the delusional anti-Israel hatred all the more. And, what of Islam's "new" American friend? Well, the anti-American vitriol has not diminished, it has been energized. Why? Because, all that is democratic to the radical Islamist is "Satan's ploy" to westernize, AKA poison, the realm of Islam...and that is one thing that will never be allowed. My friends, change is coming alright...but, as we might say in Georgia, 'taint nothin' what ya thought. It may be springtime in the Arab Middle East, but there's a storm brewing on the horizon...and it's a doozy!
Adel Al-Toraifi, editor-in-chief of the Arab magazine Al-Majalla, published an op-ed in the Islamic London daily newspaper Al-Sharq Al-Awsat [1] that, coming from an Arab Muslim intellect, was quite revealing. He focuses much on the lack of influential "Founding Fathers" of this new regional movement and questions whether there really is an "Arab Spring." Al Toraifi asks the question, "Is there truly an 'Arab Spring,' or is there in fact a conflict internally against the authorities, and externally between the countries that we consider influential in the regional balance of power?" He goes on to better define the 'change' as no change at all: "However, the plain truth is that we are not facing a genuine change in the ideas or characters of the region, in what has been termed the 'Arab Spring.' There are no 'Founding Fathers,' nor is there an intellectual or cultural elite with a realistic project to change the ruling regime, raise the political awareness of the masses, or achieve the desired regional balance of power." Listening to what he and other voices of reason in the Arab world are saying will help temper anyone's dreams that what is happening in the Middle East is a stepping stone to a more peaceful and democratic Arab world.
What Al-Toraifi does not do in his article is to predict who or what might fill the void. My interpretation: YOU DON'T WANT TO KNOW!
[1] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), May 19, 2011.
